Arès F a écrit:
Je souhaite qu'ULA réalise ses projets lunaires tels que nous rapporte EYP ci-haut, pour qu'enfin se produise le " giant leap" 😉
J'a retrouvé un article paru l'an dernier lorsque ULA a dévoilé son plan (Cislunar 1,000 Vision) concernant l'ACES, XEUS, donc des moyens pour faciliter le transport d'ergols (notamment cryogéniques) depuis des installations ISRU sur la Lune notamment (ou astéroïdes) ... avec en toile de fond la facilitation d'activités minières.
https://www.space.com/33297-satellite-refueling-business-proposal-ula.html
On y note les réflexions de deux personnes impliquées dans l'exploitation minière terrestre :
- Angel Abbud-Madrid, director of the Center for Space Resources at the Colorado School of Mines
- Dale Boucher, CEO of Deltion Innovations Ltd. in Ontario, Canada. Deltion develops mining technologies and robotics for the resource sector and is a leader in investigating the promise of space mining.
From prospecting to utilization
Angel Abbud-Madrid, director of the Center for Space Resources at the Colorado School of Mines, is bullish on ULA's plan.
For several decades, three important elements have been considered essential to the development of space resources: finding a recoverable resource, developing the technology to recover it, and a customer, Abbud-Madrid told Space.com.
This third component has been the most challenging task for in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) advocates, Abbud-Madrid said.
"Up to now, governments have been the only customer in the business plan," he said. "The announcement made by ULA radically addresses this weak link by opening up new opportunities for space resources development."
For the first time, a major launch-service provider has seriously stepped forward as a true commercial client to purchase space resources, Abbud-Madrid said.
"ULA's detailed analysis of the water-based propellant market in cislunar [Earth-moon] space has established specific price points at various orbital destinations," Abbud-Madrid said.
This plan has reinvigorated the ISRU community by challenging it to re-evaluate all steps of the ISRU process — from prospecting to utilization — to meet these targets, he added.
A turning point ?
"I think this is a turning point for ISRU," said Dale Boucher, CEO of Deltion Innovations Ltd. in Ontario, Canada. Deltion develops mining technologies and robotics for the resource sector and is a leader in investigating the promise of space mining.
"It is the first private industry customer declaring an interest in purchasing space-derived materials for commercial use," Boucher told Space.com. "They have provided quantities and price points. They are prepared to set quality metrics. This opens the door to negotiations for 'futures' types of speculative contracts for purchase of commodities, much like new gold mines do, or oil and gas."
The numbers that ULA provided, once crunched, are within the realm of typical terrestrial mining activities and can be used to generate realistic budgets and mine plans, Boucher said.
ULA's estimate that it will need the off-Earth propellant in the early 2020s follows a pattern seen in Earth-based mining, Boucher added.
"Typically, a mine will go from an idea to production in five to 10 years, spend billions to get it up and running, and expect a 10-year life," he said. "It all starts with a solid financing plan coupled to prospective customers."
For the most part, the only potential customers for space-based fuel have been space agencies. But their timelines keep shifting, their budgets keep getting reappropriated and the political will to enable this kind of activity "gets bogged down in bureaucratic zombie zones," Boucher said.
As for the ISRU impact, Boucher said, the ULA plan enables commercialization in deeper space and provides risk reductions for space-agency-sponsored missions.
The "next steps would be to evaluate the knowledge and technical gaps that must be addressed to close the case," he said. "This is not a science task; it is a commercial task."
During this process, Boucher said, it is conceivable that mission plans could be generated, feasibility studies performed, regulatory regimes examined and financing established.
"This puts a whole new perspective on commercial space mining," Boucher concluded.
On y retrouve donc la problématique qui a été aussi abordée dans la discussion sur le plan NASA (DSG + DSH) pouvant offrir des opportunités à des sociétés commerciales d'avoir un relais en orbite cis-lunaire pour leur "exploitation de ressources lunaires".
ULA pourrait à son tour, proposer des moyens techniques (lanceur Vulcan avec ACES , transport d'ergols, cargo XEUS pouvant atterrir etc ...)
Mais si l'article expose bien des possibilités d'utilisation par des missions spatiales étatiques (space-agency sponsored missions) .... pour essuyer les plâtres et permettre d "affiner" des prévisions de financement/investissement à des fins commerciales privées ....
Le HIC ! reste de trouver des investisseurs et des exploitants prêts à développer le matériel spécifique nécessaire au minage/tri/raffinement/conditionnement pour expédition, donc prêts à mettre en jeu du "capital-risque" dans un tel challenge pour installer des unités de production.
AMHA il faudra attendre le milliardaire qui outre son pari sur le "New Space" sera prêt à se lancer dans le "minage spatial" ... mais après tout il y en a qui investissent sur Terre, dans le solaire, le transport ultra-rapide en tunnel, etc ....
autre article sur le Cis-Lunar 1000 project :
http://www.airspacemag.com/daily-planet/cislunar-space-next-30-years-180962249/
Une Road Map alléchante ..... (une de plus pourrait-on dire ...surtout pour les phases 3 et 4)
...mieux vaut en effet ne pas chercher à se l’approprier ! :affraid:
